I have looked for a long time to find something comparable. My betting criteria are:
1.Ease of operation
2.Ease of staking
3.High win percentage
4.Operational filters
I have studied dozens of tipsters and forecasters who promote one off horses to win and am still waiting to find anybody who can regularly achieve a 40%+ hit rate. Many tipsters operating inanunregulated market are con-men and liars.
Success in this business lies with the analysis and application of statistics that have withstood the test of time. This is how bookmakers come out on top. Here are just a few examples :-
1. Just 20% of racehorses win 80% of races.
2. 33% of 1st favourites win their races (25% handicap, 39% non hndcp).
3. 18% of 2nd favourites win their races (16% handicap, 20% non hndcp).
4. 13% of 3rd favourites win their races (12% handicap, 14% non hndcp).
5. 9% of 4th favourites win their races (8% handicap, 10% non hndcp).
So we can see that if we bet only on non handicap races our chances are :-
1.The first favourite our winning aggregate is 39%
2.The 1st & 2nd favourites our winning aggregate is 59%
3.The 1st, 2nd & 3rd favourites our winning aggregate is 73%
We can tighten things still further in our favour by eliminating certain races, distances and courses etc
The final rabbit in the hat is the staking plan. We can bet To Win, Stop at a Winner, Cover to Win, Target profit, and so on.
Harvester 2 & 3 endeavours to select the best of the parameters to create a high strike rate coupled with a successful staking system.
So having stirred the Witches Cauldron what did we come up with? With Harvester 2 we adopted a “Dutching Plan” of betting on the first, second, third or fourth favourites depending on the number of runners in filtered selected races. This would over time give us a strike rate in the order of 70%. With this type of bet we take a nominal total bet of say £100 and split the stakes mathematically so whichever of the horses won the returns were equal.
From the days forecast you will receive information in the following format.
| Folkestone 5:00 | Odds | Stake | Yield | Probability |
| Good Article | 3.9 | 54 | £110 | 25% |
| Colnicas Lad | 6.2 | 27 | £70 | 16% |
| Fantasy Crusader | 8.2 | 18 | £50 | 12% |
| Spend | £99 | 53% |
The first column is the decimal odds on Betfair of the horses at about Noon.
The second column indicates the betting split of a £100 stake and the 3rd column indicates the NET PROFIT of a winning bet. (ie Win 1 – Lose 2). Stakes are rounded to the nearest £.
The fourth column is the mathematical probability of the horse or group of horses winning. Should be usually >50% for a three horse race.
If a price plunge occurs or if one of the three selected horses is replaced by an outsider lay the displaced horse to get your stake back and replace it with the new horse in the betting. If the selected horses alter in favouritism don’t worry because you are still betting on the same selections.
Non Runners can be a headache. If the 1st Fav is a non runner cancel or lay the bet if already on. If the 2nd or 3rd fav is a non runner pull down the 4th fav into the selections as this will make the Favourite a stronger selection. You may need to re-calculate the bet.
To maximise our profits we use a brilliant software package written by Ken Millard which will calculate the multiple variables available to us in seconds and has the advantage that it can be overlaid on the Betfair screen to match “live” prices.
Currently we are including this for free with all new clients first months subscription.
HARVESTER UPDATE (OPUS 3)
In the closing stages of the 2005 Flat Season we did suffer a reversal of fortunes where we had an unprecedented losing run in which we were involved in seven photo finishes and unbelievably came second in all of them and to rub salt in the wound we had two NH races where our selections fell at the last fence when leading. Were we depressed – bloody right we were.
In the post mortem we felt that the rigidity of the system requiring a minimum joint yield of £70 a horse was eliminating too many good potential winners where the price of the strong favourite was pulling down the overall yield below our minimum spec.
The solution was to keep the same dutching structure but to introduce
Biased Stakes. What do we mean by biased stakes – perhaps a better description would be biased winnings. It is mathematically obvious that the 1st Fav must stand a better chance of winning than the 2nd Fav who stands a better chance than the 3rd Fav etc.
Biased Stakes have become a firm favourite with our clients as there are no long losing runs and the bets are easy to understand.
UNDERSTANDING THE MATHEMATICS OF HARVESTER BETS
Profit assessment is a critical factor in multibets There is a simple way of calculating profit assessment.
Take the current average profit yield and subtract it from one hundred – this will give you the losing ratio expectation. Multiply this by your normal stake (In this example we will assume level stakes of £100 a race). Divide the loss expectation by the strike rate to give you the break even point.
The following table shows stats per 100 races
Winning Strike Rate % 40 50 60 70 80
Consequent Losing Ratio 60 50 40 30 20
Loss Expectation £’s 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000
Break even yields required £’s 150 100 66 43 25
on remaining win races (Row 1 divided into Row 3)
We can see that the pivotal point in the profit making process is around the 60% strike rate mark. Values lower than this require unachievable yields. With higher value strike rates yields are much more attainable.
There are on the market place a number of tipsters who provide “Dutching Plans”. Many claim misrepresented 90% strike rates which when evaluated turn out loss making because their average yields are around 40%. The IG system is a mathematical model that MUST produce a profit if a strike rate of 66% is coupled with an average yield of better than £60.
There is a further myth that dutching races can be improved by the introduction of increased stakes to cover the losses on any previous lost race(s). Dutching by its very nature will in the majority of races produce a yield of less than £100 per £100 staked, which is the equivalent of an odds on race. Recovery betting will only succeed where the most minimal stakes are 2.5 (6/4) so that the bettor receives the advantage of the multiplier effect of the bet. Attempts at chasing losses on odds on events will bust your bank.
Our highly successful full range of daily forecasts (Harvester; 80/20; Lays) can be accessed by our clients by E mail or phone for a very reasonable £3.30 a day. Where clients have difficulty in placing bets due to work or travel commitments we are able to offer the services of a bet placement service.
To join the Ian Galbraith success plan and enjoy tax free profits click here to join or if you have further queries I can be contacted by E mail
Regards
Ian